From the last game plan I said wholesale was in complete control of this, and they want it to go lower. Further evidence of that being true came out this week. The short interest roses again ending 8/31. During 8/9 and 8/10 there was a waterfall on very high volume. I thought then, and I think now, that wasn’t accumulation by wholesale. Wholesale was actually driving it down by shorting.
On 9/5 was the loan announcement, financing without dilution. That should have been enough to reverse the trend for several reasons, but fell into the red after a good move up. I don’t know if wholesale knew about the loan or not, but they used the news to create fear. It was good news that they manipulated to be perceived as bad news through price action. From the looks of it now, they did a very good job as retail is full of fear and confusion.
Here is today on the 15 minute chart. I noted three candles because they are the most significant for today. Granted, this is a very short term chart and those candles may look big, but the moves are actually less than 10 cents.
The volume looks high, but overall was only about average compared to the last 3 months of volume. So, I think this is all retail transactions. MM’s might be in there moving the price around, but not really participating.
The 3 candles I have noted are like the game whack-a-mole. Each time it stuck it’s head out there was something to whack it back down. Those long upper wicks are ugly and no surprise the price fell soon after each.
Perhaps it was scalping or MM’s letting it up then marking it down to try and shake retail out. Either way it’s not a good sign.
In fact, the last one was the biggest, but the market closed before it went down. That candle could be indicative of weakness in the early hours today.
Here is today in the context of the last 22 days. The volume profile is showing this week so far. All you can really tell from that is the bulk of transaction so far this week are being made at $2.71.
Two days ago was a positive candle. It has a long lower wick signifying strength, and was also on above average volume. The low of that day was also the new 52 week low in the low $2.60’s. The next day looked promising as it ended green off that strength. Unfortunately today nullified all of that good move.
As for the indicators, the 5DMA (light blue) is gaining momentum below the 20DMA (dark blue), which shown momentum building on the move down, not good. The 50DMA (light red dashed) is gaining momentum below the 200DMA (dark red dashed), not good. The acc/dist line and OBV are both going down (the light blue and green lines in the volume bars)with the price, which validates the move down, not good.
I marked up what I was talking about previously. The price action in the shaded area and the very high volume below, I believe, was wholesale taking short positions and driving the price down into that waterfall. At that time the acc/dist and OBV were in sync with the move down in price, which suggests it was not accumulation.
I have a time line that marks 8/31. That is up to where the last short interest is reported. The short interest increased on that report, which give further evidence that the waterfall was due to shorting.
Finally the yellow arrow points to the day the loan news came out. That should have been a good green candle with high volume, instead it was red with high volume. I think wholesale was protecting their new short positions and using the opportunity to create more fear to help drive it down further.
Fortunately, I didn’t buy any after the news. The news was good, but I had seen the prior waterfall as shorting, so anticipated a shake out coming. If I would have seen that waterfall as accumulation, I would have bought prior to the news.
Here is the weekly. Just like the macro analysis, all indicators, except one, are showing lower prices ahead.
The only one not negative is the 50DMA (light red dashed line) and the 200DMA (dark red dashed line). The 50DMA is still above the 200DMA, but coming down on it quick.
I’m still looking for lower prices as I still see no technical reason to be a buyer yet. My trading range support line is at $2.43. Currently I have a buy order at $2.45, but am playing it by ear.
Right now the only positive thing I see is that the price is getting very close to that support area, which is also a triple bottom going back 3 years. Because the indicators look so bad, but we are so close to that support, I am expecting a gap up sooner than later.
A gap and run is about the only thing that will change the indicators to positive. There could be one more good shake out that takes the price below that ~$2.43 support, but recovers quickly creating a spring. Gap ups are common after springs have been created.