This game plan was a good call. It was a red day as predicted. I was ready to sell 1/3 of my position into strength, as noted in the game plan, except there wasn’t any real strength to sell into.
Here is the day on the 15 minute. It started out so good, strong up move on strong volume. I was looking good until 9:00 or so. After, That was a big down result on very little effort. It staged a come back, then a pop and drop around 10:00 followed by a recovery. In other words, super volatile!
After all that drama it staged a come back towards the highs again. Then, it just got chopped down and stayed down. All the big moves that may indicate wholesale participation were selling, not good!
I do see one glimmer of hope. The last candle. I don’t put a lot of weight on one candle in the 15 minute time frame, but I will note, that last candle seems like an anomaly. There was a high level of downward effort without as much result as you would expect. That could be seen as a positive as selling was having a hard time taking it down at the end of the day. But again, not much weight in that. We will see if there is any significance to that tomorrow.
Here is today in context to the last five days. Again, it stayed in the green, but ended really weak. That’s one nasty shooting star today YUK! The only good thing I can say is that it was on about average volume, which still isn’t really great. From this chart it looks like it was all retail today, we have a valid candle.
I did take a look at this with the volume profile study. Where it closed today is right at the bottom of the value area. The value area has an upper and lower bounds, it is the area where the heaviest amount of transactions were made. If we are in an accumulation trading range, then all that volume we are entering is where wholesalers bought. I would think we should move easily through this area because all those shares traded in this area are now in strong hands. However, that’s not what seemed to happen. So, I’m a little uncertain what happened today.
Not much to say here. It is only one day so far this week, so it is the same shooting star as on the daily.
The daily was just plain ugly today, not what I expected. Green, but not pretty. I think the move for tomorrow is to sell 1/3 of my position into any strength. My 4.96 target isn’t nullified, just in a little jeopardy and I think I should take some precautions. If it ends up resolving itself and gets back on track, I will still have a majority of my holdings, but if it turns, the pain will me minimized. I just don’t like the weakness today, but there are some signs in there that it could be a fake out.