Long $VIPS Day 13 Analysis

Today was a good call from yesterday’s game plan. As expected, the 50DMA was tested and now held as support instead of previous resistance. We also made a good move up on much less volume. That indicates we are starting to have an easier time moving up as we moved through a heavy area of supply, which was also anticipated.

Weekly Scorecard
CostCloseChangeTargetHighTarget%
$10.60$12.3116%$12.80$12.5086%
My cost changed this week as I added some on a dip.

micro analysis

Here is today on the 15 minute chart. That was a good looking day. It opened with weakness and then moved slow and steady up. The volume was pretty low all day after the open, but notice the taller, above average, volume bars were all the green ones.

The last candle was pretty big volume, but the last bar of the day always seems to be bigger as day traders rush to close positions and others open them.

macro analysis

Here is today in the context of the last 13 days. I don’t usually go this far back in my macro analysis, but I wanted to show something important. I will show it in detail below, but I had said from the beginning of this move off the spring that we would need lots of volume to get past $12.15.

look at the candles and volume bars I pointed out. Each one was a move higher, but to above average to extreme volume to move it. Today, however moved up, but on much less volume. Now that we have gotten through the $12.15 level, it will be easier to move up. It took participation by the MM’s to get here, retail could not have mustered the strength alone.

Here is why I say what I say. in the highlighted area is the first big patch of supply. You can see it in the volume profile, the long congestion of blue bars, which greatly shorten at about $12.15.

Again, looking at the volume, you can see all those big green volume bars that was needed to get us through to the $12.15 area. Now that the majority of supply in there has been absorbed by MM accumulation, today we moved up closing well above $12.15 on much lesser volume. Also keep in mind, MM’s were accumulating all through this area, so those shares are now in strong hands. I added to my position on pullbacks in this area because I want to be in with the strong hands too.

Finally, you can see the dotted line I have at $12.80. That is my target price because that is where the next, even bigger, area of supply starts. I expect to see a bit of a reversal there before MM’s come in again and we attack the next congestion of supply.

global analysis

Here is the weekly. As noted, This still looks like phase C of accumulation. This week ended with a strong lower wick candle. From the weekly, it seems inevitable that I will get my target, but as soon as you start think that, that is when everything blows up.

This week also ended higher on less volume, which I detailed why I think that is in the macro analysis.

tomorrow’s game plan

I don’t see why we shouldn’t have an easier time moving up to $12.80 from here. I think we will start that process Monday. If volume does come it again during the week, we could meet and maybe surpass my target, but I’d expect some pull back after.

If I get to my target next week, I will sell, at least partial if not all. However, I have every intention of getting back in after a good retrace as it continues to $15.00.

 

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