Long $VIPS Day 16 Analysis

Today was a bad call from yesterday’s game plan. I wasn’t even close! It got hammered today. I almost bailed on the trade, but there were a few things that kept me in it. I’m more cautiously optimistic now.

micro analysis

Here is today on the 15 minute chart. That looks like a pretty significant selloff this morning. That definitely created some fear and most likely a little panic selling to augment the fall.

Finally around 10:00, after an hour and a half of constant selling, we got a good hammer that reversed the selloff. There was a bit of recovery then remained range bound to ended well off it’s highs

The last candle may have shown some absorption of selling with its big effort and little result. But, as always, the last volume bar of the day is often skewed.

micro analysis

Here is today in the context of the last five days. This is where I can find the only positive things about today, but they were positive enough to keep me in the trade.

First of all, in the micro analysis, that opening selloff looked pretty dramatic and scary. However, look at the volume of today. It’s pretty low, which means the selloff may not have been as drastic as it appeared. The other positive is that it broke below the 50DMA, but it was able to reclaim it and close back above it. That shown some strength.

Another thing to note is that today seemed like a bit of an anomaly. The result look about 33% more than that of yesterday, but the effort was maybe 20% less. The last three down days look like they could just be some low volume testing and shake outs. There just doesn’t seem to be enough volume behind it to make it a valid move.

global analysis

Here is the weekly. Again the volume seems really low for this down move. It seems to coincide with the idea that this week has been a low volume test so far. We still have two days left to the week. If I see some good recovery to form a nice lower wick on this weeks candle, that would verify the idea. But, if volume starts to significantly pick up and it continues down, it might be time to exit the trade.

tomorrow’s game plan

I have been out of sync with this one all week. It’s not looking pretty, but I’m seeing enough signs that this is a low volume test that I chose to stay in the trade. If this is a test, there could be more downside tomorrow, but the volume will have to stay low. If there is more downside, then it could recover it by the end of the day. If not, then it will have to recover it all Friday.



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