Long $VIPS Day 17 Analysis

Today was a good call from yesterday’s game plan. There was more down side today. The volume was more than it had been, but not huge.

micro analysis


Here is today on the 15 minute chart. Once again, as pretty much all week, we open with a deluge and then remain range bound at the lows. The difference today is you can see all the tall volume candles. The previous days didn’t have as much volume.

It is interesting that the price moves today were basically the same sizes as previous days, but today the effort behind each move is bigger. I would expect bigger results, but that didn’t happen. Today may have had more manipulation by MM’s than usual.

micro analysis

Here is today in the context of the last five days. I have had a sense that this whole week was being manipulated as we fall on low volume. Today the volume picked up a little.

What is interesting is looking at today and yesterday. Yesterday was the biggest price move of the week, but also the lowest in volume. Today was the biggest volume of the week, but the price move was maybe 20% less than yesterday. That coincides with the micro analysis where the efforts were more than usual, but the results were the same as they have been.

I’m not sure what it means, but I believe the price is being manipulated by MM’s and it seems to be coming to a climax.

global analysis

Here is the weekly. The weekly always looks clearer. Even with today’s increased volume, this week’s down move is still on pretty light volume. Possibly this whole week has been one big low volume test? That would account for the sense of manipulation.

tomorrow’s game plan

I feel like this whole week has been manipulated. Maybe not by active buying and selling by MM’s, but by marking the price to test for supply. If this is a test, then tomorrow should be a big move up that nullifies most of the down move this week.

My original idea was to set a target, meet it, get out, wait for the pullback then re-enter. I may have been a little too aggressive in setting my target. I got right next to it, but it seems to have reversed before meeting it.

I still believe we are ultimately on our way to $15.00 and I still think there will be a buyable pullback after the up thrust off the spring. The problem is, I think I got stuck in that foreseen pullback. So, do I exit the trade and preserve profits, or do I let it ride and play out?

If we do get an up move tomorrow that ends the week on strength, I will continue to hold the position. Otherwise, I will have some decision making to do.



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