Long $VIPS Day 18 Analysis

Today was a good call from yesterday’s game plan. I was hoping it would be a bigger move up, but we did end the week with a nice hammer. The sign of strength I was looking for.

Weekly Scorecard
CostCloseChangeTargetHighTarget%
$10.60$11.8312%$12.80$12.5086%
I think my target was too aggressive and I missed a long legged doji sign of the trend reversing. As a result I held the trade thinking I would get my target this week and instead, per the doji, the trend reversed and I got stuck in the pullback. However, the pullback was low weekly volume so I don't think it was very significant. Maybe just a low volume test of supply.

micro analysis

Here is today on the 15 minute chart. Today started with a quick drop, then a quick recovery. The next bar was a long spread down candle followed by a big ugly shooting star. That opening series looked like disaster, but then something interesting happened.

On the fourth candle, the shooting star was invalidated an it turned out to be a long spread green candle. From there is trended up slightly the rest of the day. Notice during the melt up the volume was decreasing. In this situation I think that is a good sign.

I had been saying all week that this feels like supply is being tested on low volume. After the opening exchange it went up with little effort. I think this is because supply was finally drying up and it wasn’t taking as much demand to move it up.

About 12:30 some decent volume finally came in that pushed it up to the next level. I annotated that one candle and it’s volume bar because I think it was significant. It was an anomaly with big effort and little result. It looks like sellers tried to take it down, but buyers over took them and it ended up being a nice hammer and victory for them. That’s just another sign that this week was testing and absorbing supply. The final candle of the day ended in a doji. There was equilibrium between the weakening bears and strengthening bulls.

micro analysis

Here is today in the context of all the days back to the spring. I want to show something for my own learning purpose. The candle, five days ago, was a long legged doji. It typically indicates a change in trend. I had noted that candle in the analysis of that day. I mentioned I wasn’t sure if the trend to be reversed was that prior six days, or the overall uptrend off the spring.

At the time I made the assumption it was a revers of the downtrend of the last six days. Now in retrospect, I know my assumption was wrong. If I would have drawn a channel, like I did here, I would have seen that the prior six days weren’t a down trend on there own, they were more a pullback in the overall upper trend.

Also, I would have seen that we previously crossed below the channel support, but never really cleared the channel. Never the less, that would have made me cautious and finally that long legged doji would have been my sign to get out the trade, or at least sell a portion. Anyway, it’s done and all I can do now is learn from my mistake. I need to use channels whenever I see any kind of trend.

As for today, I would rather a bigger move, but it was still a sign of strength. The volume was still low, but it finally ended green as it seemed buyers were having an easier time moving it that supply had been greatly mopped up. The day’s hammer is a strong sign showing the bull takeover.

global analysis

Here is the weekly. I had already mention this, but as dramatic as the constant pullback was this week, it really wasn’t as all. I think the volume on the week was too low to make the pullback very significant. Now that the week is over. I think this week was a bunch of low volume testing of supply. The volume stayed below average and the week ended with strength.

tomorrow’s game plan

I think next week will see average to below average volume, but the price will start to move up again as supply was tested and not found to be overly significant, indicated by the low weekly volume. If we get a move up, but on high volume, that would be even better.

 

 

 

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