Long $VIPS Day 19 Analysis

Today was a good call from yesterday’s game plan. Today was right on the money. It was slightly below average, but moved up nicely as anticipated.

micro analysis

Here is today on the 15 minute chart. As noted, last week’s low volume was attributed to a low volume test of supply. The volume stayed low which signified there wasn’t a significant amount of selling pressure. Then, Friday’s close with strength spilled over into today’s positive open.

It went up well until about 9:45, then a shooting start formed. However, it more just flattened out instead of reversing as that candle would have suggested, which I think is positive. Either way, it did what the candle ultimately meant. It ended the rally.

From about 1:45 to the close, I see a series of anomalies. The efforts are out of proportion to their results in that whole time frame. It’s hard to say if that was absorption of buying or selling, or perhaps both. The last three bars in particular were big efforts with little result. They each ended slightly green. I tend to think there was a lot of buying and a lot of profit taking from the mornings strength as there was no follow thru.

micro analysis

Here is today in the context of the last five days. I’ve added what I think is the new channel its in. This past Friday closed with a hammer and today validated it on slightly more volume. On the daily I don’t see any anomalies, so it has been valid retail trading over the past week.

We made a nice move off the 50DMA today and look to be headed to attack the 200DMA again at about $12.50.

global analysis

Here is the weekly. It appears what I had expected may be right. It is only Monday with one day of volume in the week, but the price today moved a good porting of the price of all last week. It seems to be getting easier to move up, but it is still early to tell.

tomorrow’s game plan

Perhaps I was right and last weeks pullback was just low volume testing. Today would suggest that may be the case, but it’s still only one day. I will expect increasing volume tomorrow, perhaps to about average, as some confidence starts to re-enter this market. Along with it, the price will head up closer to the 200DMA on the daily.




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