Today was a bad call from yesterday’s game plan. I was only half right today. The volume did increase to almost average, but the price didn’t increase with it.
Here is today on the 15 minute chart. There were two big volume anomalies just after the open, and two big ones to close. That first big green volume bar ended up in a bad looking shooting star, but it was invalidated on the next candle.
The two closing candles look like a good bit of absorption, but the bears pulled it out slightly. I see the opening as strong, but some weakness in the close.
The main thing is that I see what might be some evidence of manipulation, which means MM’s might be gearing up to participate again.
Here is today in the context of the last five days. You can see that today’s volume is just under average, but increasing over the past two days. However, the candle today, on the larger volume, has a really narrow spread.
The greater effort with little result in this analysis supports the micro analysis. Today looks like there was absorption and some manipulation. Sellers having a hard time taking it down is a sign of strength.
Here is the weekly. It’s still too early to get much from here.
tomorrow’s game plan
The volume increased today and there seemed to be absorption of selling. It also looks like MM’s might be gearing up to participate again. If so the volume should start coming in as the price moves up with a larger spread.
If the MM’s don’t participate, I would expect around average volume with a move up. If there is still more supply to be absorbed, I would expect a green close, but marginally. If it has been, or is finished early tomorrow, then we should get a bigger move.