Long $VIPS Day 23 Analysis

Today was a good call from yesterday’s game plan. Just as predicted, it fell through the bottom of the channel and went to a low of $11.04, pretty close to $11.00. It made a nice come back to close relatively strong at $11.44. However, I did use that closing strength to sell about 40% of my position.

Weekly Scorecard
CostCloseChangeTargetHighTarget%
$10.90$11.445%$12.80$12.5084%
I sold 40% of my position this week which changes my cost.

micro analysis

Here is today on the 15 minute chart. Today opened badly at $11.04, but recovered nicely back into the downward channel, the orange dashed line. Other than the opening, the volume was pretty low most of the day.

It showed strength today, but I would have liked to have seen more after such a bad week.

micro analysis

Here is today in the context of the last five days. It fell out the down channel, the orange dashed lines, at the open then closed at it’s high back in the channel.

The candle is solid green, which is good, but the volume behind it is pretty low. So, the strength doesn’t seem too convincing.

global analysis

Here is the weekly. It closed on the bottom of the down channel. It did save itself some today. The candle has pretty equal wicks on each side, which suggests indecision. But, the spread is still pretty wide to the down side, which is weak.

The candle this week is about the same as last, each with pretty equal amounts of volume. That suggests that the move is just valid retail.

tomorrow’s game plan

Next week has a lot going on. JD will announce ER Monday morning, which could effect the trading here. Then, Wednesday is our ER.

Today ended with some strength, but I still see overall weakness. We could make a move back up to $12, just based on staying in the channel, but that depends on how this is effected by JD’s ER.

So, I will it to call a move up into earnings to the $12.00 area, but because of this uncertainty and general weakness, I sold 40% of my position today.

 

 

 

 

 

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