$ATI – WATCH UPDATE: In 5th Contraction

Base Count

Transition Criteria

Price above 30 and 40-week MAYES
30-week MA is above the 40-week MAYES
40-week MA is turning upYES (44 weeks ago)
Series of higher highs and higher lowsYES
Large volume spikes and low volume pullbacksYES
More up weeks on volume than down weeksYES (6 : 4)

First of all, I had to rework my original base count. In the blue highlighted area above, I had originally called that a base 1. However, those yellow arrows in that area signify every time the 200-day MA moves up. Meaning, obviously, that it had to move down prior to that. I don’t think the 200-day MA is supposed to move down in stage 2. Therefore, how could that highlighted area be a base, as I originally noted, if it wasn’t actually in stage 2?

The big, long swings were confusing me. They looked like several stage 2 and stage 4 areas, so I zoomed my weekly out to max data. Once I did that it was clearer. Back in 2002 this went on a 4-year run gaining well over 5000%! So, the following big, long stage 4 made more sense after gains like that. Hence, after such a long volatile stage 4, it’s been in an equally volatile stage 1 since 2015 until now.

Finally, as a result, I changed my base count. What I once thought was a base1, I now think is a transition into a new stage 2.


Last time I was waiting on some low pivot volume after the 4th contraction. Instead, it went into a 5th contraction and the volume increased significantly. As of now the contraction is still under 10% and pretty tight. It closed up back above its 50-day MA today on heavy volume again.

It’s now in a 5th contraction. I’m watching for a move back out the contraction while it’s still pretty tight and then get some pivot volume. The overall market isn’t pretty which is making things more difficult for ATI.

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