Transition Criteria
| Price above 30 and 40-week MA | YES |
| 30-week MA is above the 40-week MA | YES |
| 40-week MA is turning up | YES (44 weeks ago) |
| Series of higher highs and higher lows | YES |
| Large volume spikes and low volume pullbacks | YES |
| More up weeks on volume than down weeks | YES (6 : 4) |
First of all, I had to rework my original base count. In the blue highlighted area above, I had originally called that a base 1. However, those yellow arrows in that area signify every time the 200-day MA moves up. Meaning, obviously, that it had to move down prior to that. I don’t think the 200-day MA is supposed to move down in stage 2. Therefore, how could that highlighted area be a base, as I originally noted, if it wasn’t actually in stage 2?
The big, long swings were confusing me. They looked like several stage 2 and stage 4 areas, so I zoomed my weekly out to max data. Once I did that it was clearer. Back in 2002 this went on a 4-year run gaining well over 5000%! So, the following big, long stage 4 made more sense after gains like that. Hence, after such a long volatile stage 4, it’s been in an equally volatile stage 1 since 2015 until now.
Finally, as a result, I changed my base count. What I once thought was a base1, I now think is a transition into a new stage 2.
Last time I was waiting on some low pivot volume after the 4th contraction. Instead, it went into a 5th contraction and the volume increased significantly. As of now the contraction is still under 10% and pretty tight. It closed up back above its 50-day MA today on heavy volume again.
It’s now in a 5th contraction. I’m watching for a move back out the contraction while it’s still pretty tight and then get some pivot volume. The overall market isn’t pretty which is making things more difficult for ATI.
