Summary
- STAGE ANALYSYS
- In defined Stage 2
- BASE COUNT
- Base 2 Cup and Handle
- TECHNICALS
- Formed a well-structured long ~5-month cup
- Currently finishing the handle moving back up towards the turn
- The turn is at $16.73
- Very strong RS relative to sector, but sector is weak relative to SPX
- FUNDAMENTALS
- The previous quarter showed breakout EPS and margins
- This quarter showed more YoY growth, but QoQ contraction
- CONCLUSION
- Fundamentals are a concern. They could be more consistent. Good breakout, but not very good follow through or acceleration. My other concern is with the RS. It is very strong compared to the Consumer Discretionary sector, but that sector is weak relative to the SPX. It still needs to make a good move to break over the turn, but I will place an order to buy there.
Stage Analysis
There was some huge stopping volume to stop the Stage 4 decline. That started Stage 1 which lasted about a year on little volume. Finally, exploding into its current Stage 2.
Base Count
After Base 1, it made a huge 183% move up in just under a month. Those big gains had to be digested, which resulted in the Base 2 cup and handle.
Technicals
Looks like it formed a solid cup and handle that lasted about 119 days. It’s currently coming up off the low of the handle, towards the turn. Very strong 148.15% RS above the CD sector, but sector is 24.1% below the SPX.
Cup Criteria
| >= 30% uptrend prior to cup with improving RS and increases in volume | YES, 192% with RS hitting new 52-week high at the time |
| 7 – 65 weeks (typically 3 – 6 months) | YES, cup lasted ~4 months |
| Correction from top to bottom of cup is 12-33% | YES, 33.63% |
| More “U” than “V” bottom | YES |
| Decline < 50% | YES, 33.63% |
| Decline < 2.5X market | YES, market declined more than cup |
Handle Criteria
| Upper 1/2 of cup | YES |
| Above 50-day MA | YES |
| Price drift down to lower low | YES |
| >= 1 week | NO, 7 bars |
| Price range tight | YES |
| Volume dried up | YES |
Fundamentals
| Past 2 quarters EPS growth >= 25% | NO, past quatre was but most recent quarter was a decline |
| Past 2 quarters margin growth >=25% | NO, past quatre was but most recent quarter was a decline |
| EPS growth >= 25% in past 3 – 5 years | YES |
| EPS surprises | YES, previous quarter was a BO surprise |
| EPS break out | YES, previous quarter |
| ROE >= 17% | NO |
| Earnings drift | YES |
Order Details
