Base Count

After coming out of the transition, it seems to be in Base 3 of Stage 2. I would typically rather base 1 or 2, but these bases are pretty short lived. Each run after the base has been about 30%.
Base Structure
Identifiable base on weekly and daily | YES, currently appears to be in base 3 |
Prior up-trend of at least 30% | YES, 34.22% |
Length of base
At least 9 weeks ascending base At least 7 weeks for all other bases | About 4 weeks |
Contain elements of strength:
RS at new high tight price ranges KO Recoveries | RS at 52-week high. The price range in the base is tight and very big volume in the run up to the base |
Contain elements of support:
Base on top of base Price above 40-week MA | MA’s are stacked as they should be and 20-day MA is supporting the price |
Shakeout near low of base | YES, at bottom most price range of base |
Handle area within upper half of base that drifts down on lower-than-average volume | YES, but volume is not low enough |
Volume surge of 50% above average at pivot | NO, the pivot hasn’t formed yet even though the price closed above the point of least resistance |
VCP Criteria
Decreasing volatility from left to right | YES, it is already very tight |
2 – 6 contractions (typically 2 – 4) | NO, only 1 of 8.34%. |
Each contraction is roughly 1/2 the previous | NO, only one already tight contraction |
Deepest contraction < 50% | YES, 8.34% |
Deepest contraction < 2.5X the market decline | YES |
On right side tight price ranges from high to low of range | YES |
On right side lowest volume in base | NO, waiting for a little volume day |
Rising RS as emerging from base | YES |
Fundamentals

Earnings are due next week on 1/26/2023. The fundamentals aren’t as strong as I’d like at the moment but are showing growth and acceleration. However, it would be better to show more.
Past 2 quarters EPS growth >= 25% | NO, last Q was -12.5% but recovered this past Q to 14.29% |
Past 2 quarters margin growth >=25% | NO, last Q was only 8.95% but the latest Q was up 50.23% |
EPS growth >= 25% in past 3 – 5 years | NO, only the most recent was 33.33% but all prior was less than 25% |
EPS surprises | YES |
EPS break out | NO, but growth has been growing and accelerating |
ROE >= 17% | NO, 8.12% |
Earnings drift | YES, big shakeout after last Q’s lack of growth but recovered afterwards |