$AGYS – WATCH: Wait for Little Volume and Earnings

Stage Analysis

This looks to follow the stage progressions where price and volume match the characteristics of each stage. It is currently in a Stage 2.

Base Count

After coming out of the transition, it seems to be in Base 3 of Stage 2. I would typically rather base 1 or 2, but these bases are pretty short lived. Each run after the base has been about 30%.

Base Structure

Identifiable base on weekly and dailyYES, currently appears to be in base 3
Prior up-trend of at least 30%YES, 34.22%
Length of base
    At least 5 weeks flat base
    At least 9 weeks ascending base
    At least 7 weeks for all other bases
About 4 weeks
Contain elements of strength:
    Daily gap ups on volume
    RS at new high
    tight price ranges
    KO Recoveries
RS at 52-week high. The price range in the base is tight and very big volume in the run up to the base
Contain elements of support:
    Support weeks
    Base on top of base
    Price above 40-week MA
MA’s are stacked as they should be and 20-day MA is supporting the price
Shakeout near low of baseYES, at bottom most price range of base
Handle area within upper half of base that drifts down on lower-than-average volumeYES, but volume is not low enough
Volume surge of 50% above average at pivotNO, the pivot hasn’t formed yet even though the price closed above the point of least resistance


My only concern is that the IT sector is weak relative to the SPX. However, within the IT sector this is 90.85% stronger than the rest of it. The price did close above the point of least resistance on about average volume. I’d like to see it pull back to that PoLR on little volume.

VCP Criteria

Decreasing volatility from left to rightYES, it is already very tight
2 – 6 contractions (typically 2 – 4)NO, only 1 of 8.34%.
Each contraction is roughly 1/2 the previousNO, only one already tight contraction
Deepest contraction < 50%YES, 8.34%
Deepest contraction < 2.5X the market declineYES
On right side tight price ranges from high to low of rangeYES
On right side lowest volume in baseNO, waiting for a little volume day
Rising RS as emerging from baseYES


Earnings are due next week on 1/26/2023. The fundamentals aren’t as strong as I’d like at the moment but are showing growth and acceleration. However, it would be better to show more.

Past 2 quarters EPS growth >= 25%NO, last Q was -12.5% but recovered this past Q to 14.29%
Past 2 quarters margin growth >=25%NO, last Q was only 8.95% but the latest Q was up 50.23%
EPS growth >= 25% in past 3 – 5 yearsNO, only the most recent was 33.33% but all prior was less than 25%
EPS surprisesYES
EPS break outNO, but growth has been growing and accelerating
ROE >= 17%NO, 8.12%
Earnings driftYES, big shakeout after last Q’s lack of growth but recovered afterwards
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