Summary
I had this on a secondary watchlist. I hadn’t been watching much the past few days and took a look this morning. I made an impulsive intraday move to place an order after liking what I saw. If I had been watching, I probably would have taken this trade two days ago at a low volume pivot. Nevertheless, today I placed an order at the point of least resistance, and that order filled. It ended up closing over that point on big volume, so it’s off to a good start.
Stage Analysis

This is showing all the characteristics of stage maturation. After IPO it went straight to Stage 4, where there was good stopping volume at the time to correct the decent. After some time in Stage 1, there was a big volume BO that started the current Stage 2.
Stage 2 Criteria
QUESTION | ANSWER |
---|---|
Bullish market trend | YES |
Sector RS outperforming market | YES, by 9.74% |
2x average volume on BO from Stage 1 or leading up to it | YES |
30-week MA rising | YES |
Price above 30-week MA | YES |
Overhead supply over past 2 years | YES. IPO was about 2 years ago and above its IPO price |
Outperforming SPX | YES. by 96.67% |
Length of previous Stage 1 | About 3 months |
Base Count

I wasn’t sure if this was 2 bases or a base on top of base. The first was a C&H, but it only broke out 20%, which is less than the typical 30%. It then proceeded to fall back to the middle of the cup. Also, note that it failed right at the Stage 2 channel resistance. It eventually recovered back into a VCP after that shakeout at the low point. Therefore, I think that the C&H failed, but then there was a base reset into the VCP, which formed a base on top of base structure.
Base Structure
QUESTION | ANSWER |
---|---|
Identifiable base on weekly and daily | YES |
Prior up-trend of at least 30% | YES, prior uptrend before the C&H was over 50%, the BO from the C&H was only 20% |
Length of base
At least 9 weeks ascending base At least 7 weeks for all other bases | 130 trading days |
Contain elements of strength:
RS at new high Tight price ranges KO Recoveries | YES, RS at new high, tight price ranges heading into BO, KO recoveries |
Contain elements of support:
Base on top of base Price above 40-week MA | YES, big volume on up weeks, base on top of base, price above 40-week |
Shakeout near low of base | YES, at low of VCP |
VCP Criteria
QUESTION | ANSWER |
---|---|
Decreasing volatility from left to right | YES, from 25.59% to 6.93% |
2 – 6 contractions (typically 2 – 4) | YES, 3 |
Each contraction is roughly 1/2 the previous | YES, 25.59%, 13.51%, 6.93% |
Deepest contraction < 50% | YES, 25.59% |
Deepest contraction < 2.5X the market decline | YES |
On right side tight price ranges from high to low of range | YES, leading up to today’s BO |
On right side lowest volume in base | YES |
Rising RS as emerging from base | YES |
Fundamentals

Fundamentals are limited. This is a commercial stage biotech that seems to have just turned profitable after last Q. However, there has been no ED since that report, which is a concern. Their fundamentals could be better, but it is also a new company.
Earnings
QUESTION | ANSWER |
---|---|
Past 2 quarters EPS growth >= 25% | NO, only latest Q 85.95% |
Past 2 quarters margin growth >=25% | YES, 73.34%, 179.04% |
EPS growth >= 25% in past 3 – 5 years | N/A |
EPS surprises | YES, latest Q |
EPS break out | YES, latest Q |
Annual ROE >= 17% | NO, -117.43% |
Earnings drift | NO |